Allianz Risk Barometer 2026: Cyber remains top business risk globally but AI fastest riser at #2

• In Australia, AI is the leading risk, moving from #8 to in 2025, with Cyber ranked as the #2 risk. Changes in legislation and regulation are the #3 risk.
• Climate change moved up two places to the #4 risk in Australia, with extreme weather driving physical, operational and financial implications.
• Cyber, especially ransomware attacks, ranks as the #1 global risk for the fifth time in a row for companies of all sizes (42% of responses globally).
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the biggest riser and jumps from #10 to #2 globally (32%), highlighting the emerging risks for companies in almost all industry sectors.
• Geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty pushes political risks and violence to its highest-ever position at #7.

In 2026, cyber incidents is the top global risk for the fifth year in a row, with its highest-ever score (42% of responses), and by a higher margin than ever before (+10%). It ranks as the main corporate concern in every region (Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Africa and Middle East). The continued presence of cyber at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer reflects a deepening reliance on digital technology at a time when the cyber threat landscape, and geopolitical, and regulatory environments, are fast evolving. Recent high-profile cyber-attacks underline the continuous threat to businesses of all sizes. Smaller and mid-sized enterprises are increasingly targeted and under pressure due to a lack of cyber security resources.

“Large companies’ investments in cyber security and resilience have been paying off, ensuring they can detect and respond to attacks early. However, cyber risk continues to evolve. Organisations are increasingly reliant on third party providers for critical data and services, while AI is supercharging threats, increasing the attack surface and adding to existing vulnerabilities,” explains Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial.

AI has surged into the top tier of global business concerns, rising to #2 (32%) in 2026 from #10 in 2025 – the biggest jump in this year’s ranking. It is a big mover in all regions – ranked #2 in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Africa and the Middle East, and #3 in Europe – and is a growing risk for companies of all sizes too, moving into the top three for large, mid-sized and smaller firms. As AI adoption accelerates and becomes more deeply embedded in core business operations, respondents expect AI-related risks to intensify, especially when it comes to liability concerns. The rapid spread of generative and agentic AI systems, paired with their growing real-world use, has raised awareness of just how exposed organisations have become.

“Companies increasingly see AI not only as a powerful strategic opportunity but also as a complex source of operational, legal and reputational risk. In many cases, adoption is moving faster than governance, regulation, and workforce readiness can keep up,” says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist, Allianz. “As more firms attempt to scale in 2026, they will face greater exposure to system-reliability issues, data-quality constraints, integration hurdles, and skilled talent shortages. Meanwhile, new liability exposures are emerging around automated decision-making, biased or discriminatory models, intellectual-property misuse, and uncertainty over who is responsible when AI-generated outputs cause harm.”

2025 marked a shift towards protectionist trade policies and tariff wars that brought uncertainty to the world economy. It was also a year of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, as well as border disputes between India/Pakistan and Thailand/Cambodia and civil wars in Africa - a trend which continues in 2026 with the US intervention in Venezuela. Geopolitical risks are putting supply chains under increasing pressure, but as risks rise, just 3% of Allianz Risk Barometer respondents view their supply chains as “very resilient”. In the past year alone, trade restrictions have tripled to affect an estimated US$2.7trn of merchandise – nearly 20% of global imports according to Allianz Trade – fueling companies exploring trends such as friendshoring and regionalisation. These developments lead to a high-risk perception – 29% of respondents rank business interruption as a top peril, placing it at #3, although it drops a position year-on-year.

Unsurprisingly, political risks and violence climbs two places to #7, its highest-ever ranking. The closely linked risk of changes in legislation and regulation – which includes trade tariffs – ranks #4 globally, unchanged year-on-year but with an increase in respondents, driven by concerns over growing protectionism. In fact, global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict ranks as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialise in the next five years, according to 51% of the respondents.

View the Allianz Risk Barometer methodology and full global and country risk rankings.

The Allianz Risk Barometer is an annual business risk ranking compiled by Allianz Group’s corporate insurer Allianz Commercial, together with other Allianz entities. It incorporates the views of 3,338 risk management experts in 97 countries and territories including senior managers, risk managers, brokers, and insurance experts. It is being published for the 15th time.

Allianz Commercial is the center of expertise and global line of Allianz Group for insuring mid-sized businesses, large enterprises and specialist risks. Among our customers are the world’s largest consumer brands, financial institutions and industry players, the global aviation and shipping industry as well as family-owned and medium enterprises which are the backbone of the economy. We also cover unique risks such as offshore wind parks, infrastructure projects or film productions. Powered by the employees, financial strength, and network of the world’s #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what’s ahead: They trust us in providing a wide range of traditional and alternative risk transfer solutions, outstanding risk consulting and Multinational services as well as seamless claims handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either through our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2024, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated around €18 billion in gross premium globally. 

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

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